Shale boom, oil price stability dominate Houston energy conference

US shale price chart

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Supply Side Focus

OPEC is quite concerned about managing the supply picture in a bid to keep oil prices up.

OPEC representatives planned to meet Monday night with executives from some of the US shale producers - a follow-up to an ice-breaking meeting on the sidelines of the same conference a year ago.

The Paris-based IEA forecasts in its latest oil markets report that crude-by-rail exports will grow from 150,000 barrels a day in late 2017 to 250,000 barrels a day this year and then to 390,000 barrels a day in 2019.

The United Arab Emirates oil minister said on Sunday that OPEC a year ago discussed member Venezuela's falling production and offered technical aid to help restore the South American country's output.

Futures in NY fell from the settlement Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute was said to have reported crude inventories mounted higher by 5.66 million barrels last week. Production from the prolific Permian Basin will double over the period and the country's total liquid hydrocarbon output will rise to 17mn bpd from 13.2mn past year.

The International Energy Agency says the US will steal oil market share from OPEC producers. And the set to become part of the top five global crude exporters, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.

SUPPLY RISKS The IEA expects the supply agreements orchestrated by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies such as Russian Federation and Oman back in 2017 will continue to remain a feature of oil markets.

The Port of Corpus Christi's strategic goals include providing surface infrastructure and services in support of maritime and industrial development. So, they expect the United States to outperform Russian Federation and become number one later this year.

After downplaying and then attacking, Opec has spent the past year making nice with its United States shale adversaries, in an effort to understand the magnitude of the problem and, perhaps, convince the rival producers to show restraint.

US President Donald Trump's planned 25% import tariff on steel is a gift to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and Russian Federation.

In response to the high cost of USA shale, Saudi Arabia has been selling its massive stockpile of crude oil at rock-bottom prices. This year, the United States could surpass Russian Federation as the world's largest oil producer.

"Sharply falling production in Venezuela will offset gains in Iraq, resulting in OPEC crude oil capacity growth of just 750,000 b/d by 2023", IEA said.

"Upstream investment may be inadequate to avoid a significant squeeze of the global spare capacity cushion by 2023", it said in a report released Monday.

Declining oil and gas costs have helped producers, but researchers said investments outside the United States are necessary to spur supplies after 2020.

However, despite rising prices, the IEA noted that the oil industry has yet to recover from the "unprecedented" two-year drop in investment following the oil price crashing in mid-2014. Pioneer Natural Resources, another top shale producer, plans to lift Permian oil output by 19 percent to 24 percent this year, after a 26-percent increase in 2017.

While more stringent emissions regulations and rise of electric vehicles and switch to natural gas vehicles will slow demand for oil, the fastest-growing source of global oil demand growth will be petrochemicals, particularly in the United States and China.

Oil rose on Tuesday, paring earlier losses after South Korea said it would hold a summit with North Korea for the first time in more than a decade, which investors took as a cue to sell the dollar and buy risk-sensitive assets such as commodities.

Despite the pipeline shortages, Canada will be among the countries leading growth in oil output over the next few years, taking its overall production to 5.6 million barrels per day by 2023, compared to 4.8 million bpd this year.

"It strengthens the case for a potential trade war", George Wilkes, an analyst at Sucden in London, told S&P Global Platts. Besides, U.S. energy firms added one oil rig last week, the fifth weekly increase in a row, bringing the total count up to 800, the highest since April 2011, pointing to more increases in output to come.

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