United Kingdom inflation rises to highest level in five years

No New Clues on UK Rate Rise From Bank of England's Carney

Inflation bites in the UK as households come under price pressure

Britain's inflation rate hit 3 percent in September, well above the BoE's target of 2 percent, and both political economists and market analysts are concerned that the country's upcoming secession from the European Union will prevent the economy from expanding as needed.

Last month, Governor Mark Carney said that an interest rate hike is on its way "in the coming months".

The dilemma facing the bank was evident in testimony given by Dave Ramsden, its new deputy governor for markets and banking.

Samuel Tombs, chief United Kingdom economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said inflation is likely to peak at 3.1% in October and return to target by late 2018, "discouraging" the Bank of England from raising interest rates a few times over the next 12 months.

The Governor is likely to be questioned about inflation and interest rates by MPs.

Though Silvana Tenreyro, one of the newest members on the Bank of England's rate-setting panel, told lawmakers Tuesday that the pressure from this depreciation will "start to wane in coming months", she conceded that she was "minded" to back higher rates "in coming months".

"The MPC will probably be focussed more on tomorrow's wage growth figures for any signs that domestic cost pressures are building", he said, predicting inflation will be back below 3% by the end of the year and will end 2018 at around 2.25%.

Mr Carney said the rise in inflation is nearly entirely the result of the drop in the value of sterling, and he expects this impact to drop out of the statistics in the coming months.

Grilled by the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee, Carney stuck by the Bank of England's revised estimates that inflation would peak in October or November this year. When inflation rises, it's more likely the central bank will raise interest rates to help slow the pace of inflation.

"I think it's more likely than not that I will be writing on behalf of the MPC a letter to the chancellor", Carney said.

However, the impact of the lower exchange rate on inflation is set to ease as the annual change of prices due to the pound's decline drops out of the comparison.

Also, there is a belief that the bank will lose credibility if once again it puts the market on notice for a rate hike and fails to deliver.

Carney gave no further detail on when this might come, but reiterated that it was on the mind of the monetary policy committee and most members thought a raise "over the coming months may be appropriate". We expect inflation to approach summit in October.

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