In a June 29, 2017 update, the Congressional Budget Office said it expects the USA labor market to tighten in the next two years, as greater demand for workers will push the unemployment rate down and the labor force participation rate up.
Revised data for April and May showed 47,000 more jobs created than previously reported. The U.S. economy created 222,000 new jobs in June, well above Wall Street's forecast. Employment increased in health care, social assistance, financial activities and mining. Despite the plunge in the unemployment rate during the recovery, there have been only scant signs of wage pressures. In May, unemployment hi a 16-year low at 4.3 percent.
Some strategists and economists are looking beyond the unemployment and monthly job gains numbers.
Hourly pay rose a 0.2% to $26.25 an hour in June, the government said. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, while hourly earnings are anticipated to have risen 2.6% year over year.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised up from +174,000 to +207,000; and the change for May was revised up from +138,000 to +152,000.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to make its next decision on interest rates following a two-day meeting later this month. Inflation has remained persistently low since the recession ended - lower even than the Fed's 2 percent target rate, which it regards as consistent with a healthy economy. But the automobile sector lost a further 1,300 jobs as slowing sales and bloated inventories force manufacturers to cut back on production. In the first six months of this year, hiring has averaged almost 180,000 jobs a month.
A broader measure of unemployment, including discouraged workers and those who are working part time but prefer full-time work, inched up from 8.4 percent in May to 8.6 percent in June.
Elise Gould of the Economic Policy Institute noted that among worker groups the jobs report contained good news for African-Americans, for whom the jobless rate has tumbled to 7.1 per cent, down 1.5 points from the same month past year. The four-week moving average, in this case, rose from 1.938 million to 1.945 million.
Trump, clearly upbeat over the news, tweeted, "Really great numbers on jobs & the economy!" The labor force participation rate rose slightly to 62.8 percent percentage points and the employment-to-population ratio also rose slightly to 60.1 percentage points.